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You didn't really provide any facts to support that the second story quest will be based on the invasions.
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I didn't really think it would be necessary to include. Reading the lores, and attending the GM events, it is pretty obvious that the next step in the story is picking up where the invasions left off. Jolly Roger attacked Port Royal, to destroy the mansion. He attacked Tortuga to capture Jack Sparrow. But what about Padres?
There was a thread floating around for quite some time, which contained a quest (believed by the person who posted it to be the next chapter). That quest was removed from the game, but it was the headstone quest. The headstone in the quest was apparently located on Padres (or at least the person who knew where it is at is located there). That quest right there fits into the "But what about Padres?" question. Makes perfect sense to me that this could very well be the next chapter, with the Kraken following soon after.
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If the developers said they were working on the Kraken, wouldn't that mean that that's what the second story quest will be about?
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All of the work on the Kraken does not mean it is going to be the base of the next story. Sure they worked on it, but that doesn't mean it is going to be the next chapter. Look at their stories posted on their site, nothing about the Kraken (other than rumors of it arriving in March last year), has been said. It wouldn't make much sense to throw the Kraken in the game right now, because there is no story leading up to it. Right now Disney has made out Jolly Roger to be the main enemy, with that said, throwing Davy Jones and the Kraken into the game make no sense at all.
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It seems down right silly to me if they decided to have invasions be the basis of the second story quest. Would it not be a horrible basis, seeing as odds are you're going to need to do an invasion in one quest? When invasions only happen at certain times, which means finishing a quest to do an invasion would be too difficult. Not to mention winning an invasion to complete the quest.
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That wasn't what I meant when I said the invasions would more than likely be the base of the next chapter. I meant that the invasions are going to build up to the next chapter. The invasions have again, brought up the question as to why the islands are being attacked. We know why Port Royal is, why Tortuga is, all that is left is Padres.
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It just seems illogical for them to say they're working on the Kraken, and then have to stop that to make a story quest that's going to go against the movies. Yes, the game is different, but Davy Jones came before jolly roger, and he should be the first to be "taken care of".
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Actually, given all the talk about the Kraken (by the players, not developers), it makes perfect sense for them to say they are working on it. By saying that, they are building hype for the release of the Kraken. That hype will encourage more people to join the game and play. Or encourage those playing already to stick around and see it.
Its just my opinion, but to me it makes a lot of sense. Given all Disney themselves have said, Davy Jones and the Kraken do not fit into the story at the moment. First things first, they have to reveal to us why Jolly is attacking Padres. Be it in a major chapter, or just a minor quest, they need to reveal that to us. Assuming that the next chapter is that old headstone quest we've heard about before, they could have Jolly steal that. Then the quests following could be us trying to locate the headstone, recover the headstone, and then they could introduce Davy Jones and the Kraken into the story.