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I give you a simple task - sit on an Ideal server, on Port Royal, and count every low level basic you see. Chances are, if you sit there all day, you'll get anywhere from 25 to 125, maybe more. Then, multiply that by all the other Ideal/Full servers. You should get some number in to high hundreds or thousands. THATS how many new members this game gets every day.
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How many of these are 2nd, 3rd, 4th etc pirates of long time players I wonder. Only saying these may or may not signify actual new players. Hard to say, but most of the low level pirates I've talked to have bigger pirates. Also many low levels don't stay in the game for long.
But I agree with your main point that getting in to the story of the game helps make it fun. Unfortunately that is hard to do if you are a high level pirate with few if any challenges left. For example, The Muertas quest was a great adventure for my level 16 pirate, but was just run around,kill, sink and see this or that person for my lvl 47. Pretty boring.
Nelly, the true test for guild wars will be how you feel about it after you have played it as long as you have played pirates, by then it might seem like boring repetition as well.